Zimbabwe predicts steep drop in tobacco output

Source: Northwest Arkansas Democrat Gazette

HARARE, Zimbabwe -- Africa's largest tobacco producer began its annual tobacco-selling season on Wednesday, with officials and farmers projecting a sharp decline in harvests and quality because of a drought in Zimbabwe blamed on climate change and worsened by the El Niño weather phenomenon.

From a record harvest of 326,000 tons last year, the country is estimating that production will fall to about 235 million to 259,000 tons this season, said Patrick Devenish, chairman of the Tobacco Industry Marketing Board, at the official opening event in the capital, Harare.

"Most of our tobacco is grown by small-scale farmers. They depend on the rains, and a drought is not good for their crop," Devenish said. "The quality of some of the tobacco may also be affected."

He said Zimbabwe sells the bulk of its tobacco to China, although Western and Eastern Europe and parts of Africa remain important markets. In 2023, it received a record $1.2 billion from tobacco exports, up from $975 million in 2022, according to the marketing board. Tobacco is one of the country's major foreign currency earners, along with minerals such as gold.

Agriculture minister Anxious Masuka said small-scale farmers, who lack equipment and depend on rain, produce about 75% of the crop.

Tobacco production had been rebounding in the African nation, after plummeting from about 265,000 tons in 1998 to less than 60,000 tons a decade later after the eviction of several thousand white farmers who accounted for the majority of growers.

With last year's record harvest, Zimbabwe regained its spot as one of the world's top 10 exporters of tobacco, alongside mega producer China, India, Brazil, the United States and Indonesia.

China has been central to Zimbabwe's tobacco boom by establishing a grower contract system run by the state-owned China National Tobacco Corp., the world's largest cigarette producer. Under the system, the Chinese company provides seeds, fertilizers, food, and money to pay for labor and wood for curing the tobacco to Black farmers, who now make up the majority of Zimbabwe's tobacco producers. The farmers, in exchange, are obligated to sell their crop to the Chinese company or its agents.

About 95% of Zimbabwe's crop is financed through the contract system, which is now also offered by some non-Chinese local and foreign companies. Farmers, many of whom are unable to get loans from banks because of a lack of collateral, say this financing system leaves them in a cycle of debt.

The country had hoped to increase its annual harvest to 330,000 tons by the end of 2025 under a government-led tobacco transformation plan adopted in 2021.

But the drought has badly dented farmers' optimism this season.

"The drought is likely to cost farmers 20% or more of their usual earnings," said George Seremwe, president of the Zimbabwe Tobacco Growers Association, which represents Black small-scale farmers.