Britain's Conservatives Mishandled Ukraine - The Next Government Will Pay For It - CDM - Human Reporters * Not Machines
Source: CDM
The UK will go to the polls later this year. The Conservative Party, in power for fourteen years, is going to lose badly. One thing it actually has to run on is its unabashed support for Ukraine. The UK government stepped up where the EU and US failed collectively. There's just one problem, however.
Ukraine is currently on the retreat. Its counteroffensive failed last year and now its army struggled to dig in its defensive. Many media outlets will push the line that delayed western support is largely responsible. Behind the scenes in Whitehall, though, the truth was always known: Ukraine was always going to lose.
Ukraine could not beat Russia. It never had the full support of its Western allies, who refused to commit the weapons and resources it needed. It lacked the manpower for one thing. More importantly, Ukraine's institutions were stretched. Its democratic reforms stumbled, staggered and have so far underdelivered. Western equipment did not give it an edge, and many reports show poor training, ignoring sound military advice and battlefield operations. This is without politics getting in the way.
As for Britain's Conservative Party, Ukraine became its joker card. Boris Johnson was drowning in scandal. Liz Truss's economic policies nearly cost Britons their pension pot. As for Rishi Sunak, he tried to present himself as a capable technocrat. A private school and Oxford educated Tory, San Francisco Tech Bro, child of immigrants and all round cool head. That was quick to fail, but even still, full throttled support for Ukraine was supposed to be the thing they did well.
Instead, billions of pounds went to propping up Ukraine's failed efforts. Meanwhile, the UK's own military boss admitted the UK's military is depleted. He called for the creation of a civilian army as ordinary people struggled to make ends meet. Hospitals continue to fall apart at the seams (literally). Inflation came down, but most are still out of pocket. That was before the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, announced tax hikes in his recent budget statement.
Mainstream outlets refuse to say the quiet part out loud: the money was essentially wasted. It could have been spent at home to bail out bankrupt local governments. It could have been given back to the people in the form of energy subsidies. It could have rebuilt hospitals and paid for more nurses and doctors. And the UK could have supported a peace process earlier and taken Russia's concerns more seriously.
Instead, the world's largest country was dismissed. The UK underestimated how important Ukraine was to Russia. It pretended Ukraine was a democratic island stuck in an unfavourable location and long standing interest of its own. Ukraine was a pawn, nothing more.
As things stand, Sunak and the Conservatives will be wiped out in the upcoming election. The next government will be left with an unenviable task.
Two years ago, suggestions of negotiations and peace were met with vitriol. Now, simply pick a serious and notable expert, politician or journalist and all are calling for that. Ukraine has already lost the territory Russia currently occupies. Many there feel Kyiv abandoned them and resent Zelensky for resisting. They now have Russian passports, phone numbers and pensions. Ukraine is now running out of men, supplies and morale as Russia prepares another offensive. To take back the lost territories, including Crimea, would require immense bloodshed. The West doesn't want this, nor do most Ukrainians and Russians. Indeed, most Russians I talk to here simply want this to end and it likely will be sooner than most expect.
When it does, Britain's next government, headed by Sir Keir Starmer and the Labour Party, will have to explain to the UK population why they are abandoning Ukraine. Around 80% of Britons support Ukraine. Starmer knows a negotiated peace is coming. What he and Labour haven't planned for is the politics of that.
Britain's public services are in a desperate state. And that is thanks to the Conservatives, who cut thei spending and funding. The result is chaos. Nobody can get a dentist or doctor, and many most now live paycheck to paycheck paying the highest taxes since the 1940s - all the while receiving worse quality services.
As well as rebuilding Britain's economy and public services, Starmer will have to rebuild the UK's military and must show Britons their country is still a great power. It will be hard to do that by abandoning the noble cause of Ukraine and with no money in the state coffers.
In Starmer's defense, the UK government was never honest with its population. It couldn't help Ukraine win. Sanctions on Russia have failed and will likely be lifted anyway. The quiet part is that Ukraine was never worth sacrificing British blood for, unlike Poland or Belgium. Ukrainians certainly deserve an answer as to why two years later.
The UK's next government is in an inevitable position before the election date has even been set.
Dr James Pearce is a historian and journalist based in Russia. He is the author of The Use of History in Putin's Russia and is currently writing a history of Russia's Golden Ring Cities.