Liberia: Nimba County Senatorial Election Poses Political Crossroads Amidst Incumbency, Tribal Dynamics, and Influential Endorsements - FrontPageAfrica

Source: Front Page Africa

NIMBA COUNTY - When the people of Nimba County go to the polls to elect a new senator on April 23, they will make a choice out of four candidates.

By Selma Lomax, [email protected] & Franklin Doloquee, Contributing Writer

The likes of Nya Twayen of Unity Party, People's Unification Party's Samuel Kogar, former Nimba senator Thomas Grupee, and Independent candidate Armstrong Gobac Selekpoh are opting to replace Jeremiah Koung, who was elected as vice president to Unity Party's Joseph Boakai in 2023.

It is poised to be a highly intriguing event and the outcome could either chart a new political trajectory for the county or Liberia at large or perpetuate an age-old worrisome voting pattern in the country.

This is especially significant as the so-called godfather of the county, Senator Prince Johnson, continually voices his dissatisfaction over not having a say in the ruling Unity Party's appointments and his threat not to support the party's candidate. This sentiment is compounded by the call for the establishment of the War and Economic Crimes Court.

FrontPageAfrica analysis suggests that the outcome of the election would also be influenced by a number of other factors, including incumbency, tribalism, voter turnout, among others.

FrontPageAfrica projects the election to be a two-horse race, and the issues at play make the election highly unpredictable. Be that as it may, FrontPageAfrica in this analysis assesses the strengths and weaknesses of the four candidates.

NYA TWAYEN, UNITY PARTY

STREGTH: Twayen contested the 2023 senatorial election and accumulated over 55,000 votes, finishing second to eventual winner Senator Johnson. It was an impressive feat, according to many political pundits for the fact it was his first time contesting for political office.

The former deputy director of the National Social Security and Welfare Cooperation (NASSCORP) is being favored by the power of incumbency. His Unity Party has been in power for nearly four months and he is the personal choice of the Vice President Koung.

It's being observed that since Koung personally chose Twayen as his successor, it is expected that the government would deploy all its resources to ensure that he wins the election.

Beyond the power of incumbency and other factors in his favor, FrontPageAfrica gathered that Twayen is the leading candidate on issues outlined in his campaign manifesto.

Twayen seems to be tapping aggrieved politicians from other political parties and joining his campaign team. He has been going to these aggrieved politicians making one promise or the other. He has been able to get men to his side but the issue now is if these men would translate to actual votes on the election day.

Additionally, Twayen also appears to have struck the right balance on the issue of tribalism - a major factor in Nimba politics where the Gio and Mano tribes are major power blocs that wield heavy influence in elections.

WEAKNESSES: But Twayen is not without weak points which may discourage voters from electing him as senator of Nimba County. Twayen is not widely accepted even among the Unity Party sections that should be his natural base. It is believed he is not trusted by many who see him as 'too elitist'.

FrontPageAfrica investigation observed that Twayen would have to overcome the question of acceptability among the people of Nimba if he must become senator. "There is also a belief that Twayen is too elitist. He has not had much connection to the ordinary man on the streets. Added to that there are no clear benefits that accrued to the county when he served at NASSCORP," one political pundit said.

While Vice President Koung is bent on ensuring that Twayen succeeds him as senator, there are indications that Koung's public image is a major challenge the candidate has to overcome in order to win the election.

Koung, a Gio native, is being accused of doing more for his kinsmen than the Mano ethnic group, and there are people who feel that the Koung didn't do much for them and this might affect Twayen.

Political pundits believe Twayen's political success hinges on the support of Senator Johnson despite his impressive feat in 2023. An attempt for Senator Johnson to openly campaign for Kogar, a member of the Gio tribe, many believe it might be difficult for Twayen.

THOMAS GRUPEE, INDEPENDENT

STREGTH: As a former senator, Grupee's manifesto is centered on the promise to do much more than his first term. In addition, he is widely regarded as disciplined, humble and amiable.

Grupee knows now that he can't win an election in Nimba County without the support of Senator Johnson. From picking him as a "political nobody" in 2011 following his return to the country from the United States of America to propelling him defeat a sitting superintendent at the time in Edith Gongloe-Weh, Senator Johnson had all the marks of "godfatherism' on Grupee's triumph.

Three years into Grupee's nine-year tenure as senator, he broke ranks with Senator Johnson and it was always inevitable that his re-election was hanging in a balance. And in 2020, Koung, with the back of the influential Senator Johnson, won the senatorial election.

WEAKNESSES: Without Senator Johnson's support, Grupee's chances of winning the pending senatorial election are slim, pundits have said. He appears to be faced with health issues, which kept him away from the country for much of his tenure.

SAMUEL KOGAR, PUP

STRENGTH: Kogar holds the records as the first lawmaker in Nimba County to defy Senator Johnson and go on to win three successive elections. From the same town of GOMAPLAY in District Five, appears to be a man of the people in the sense that he has been able to touch the lives of some indigent persons and youths of District Five.

The feeling is that he will win in District Five but will not be able to win the county," one political pundit told FrontPageAfrica while assessing the lawmaker's chances. As a three term lawmaker, Kogar is also believed to have a grassroots appeal. He is equally seen as a 'street smart' politician.

FrontPageAfrica gathered that going nasty is part of how Kogar plays the game and he has used the streets to galvanize his acceptance over the years.

WEAKNESSES: Kogar's major worries should how he will convince Senator Johnson to endorse his candidacy. Though pictures of him being "politically blessed" by Senator Johnson have been making rounds on social media, a leaked audio of Senator Johnson rebuffing his support for him should be considered by him greatly.

ARMSTRONG GOBAC SELEKPOH, INDEPENDENT

STRENGTH: He is contesting for the second time having first lost his representative bid of District Three and as senatorial candidate in 2023. Born 1984, Selekpoh's grassroots support can't be over emphasized. In recent days, he continues to enjoy support from several organizations from the nooks and crannies of the county.

He has been a major critic of Senator Johnson after he accused the Nimba County senator of requesting money from him to appoint him as a chair of the county's Project Management Committee.

WEAKNESSES: His major challenges are his inability to transform the support he enjoys across the county to electoral fortune.